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REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS: Study on Interlinkages Between Indonesia Biodiversity and Climate Change: A Dynamic Modeling

SUMMARY OF PROCUREMENT

WRI intends to award a cost-reimbursable type contract to a Consulting Firm to provide strategies and policy recommendations regarding the interlinkages between Indonesia biodiversity and climate change to be implemented in Indonesia for the 2020-2045 Period to protect Indonesian Biodiversity from the adversarial effect of climate change. The project is expected to provide core analytical and policy inputs to Indonesia Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (IBSAP) to be updated for the period 2020-2025. The project has an expected end date of June 2021.

Goal of the Project: Contribute in the process of understanding linkages between Biodiversity and Low Carbon Development; and providing analytical insights for policy identification, appraisal and formulation, to feed into core processes, including Indonesia Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (IBSAP) 2020-2025.

The objectives of the project are:

1) Identify core concepts on biodiversity, including identification of tools and methods for appraisal and economic valuation of biodiversity that are relevant for Indonesia;

2) Identify data needs / gaps and methods for incorporating biodiversity-related data in Indonesia's system of economic and environmental accounts (SEEA);

3) Incorporating biodiversity concepts, data and methods into core models used by BAPPENAS for green policy analysis. In particular, to develop a framework (including a dynamic model) to represent species abundance, diversity, and sensitive ecosystems affected by climate change and land-use occurring within Indonesia’s seven ecoregions. The framework will be inclusive of special cases for specific species from among Indonesia’s seven eco-regions;

4) to provide policy recommendations (evidence-based policy) on avenues to mitigate negative climate-induced effects on biodiversity. A Summary Report: “Addressing Interlinkage between Biodiversity and Low Carbon Development Initiatives: Indonesia Case” will be produced

5) Building capacity of policy makers and other stakeholders on data, concepts and tools for appraisal and economic valuation of biodiversity in Indonesia; as well as on methods for incorporating biodiversity dimensions into policy analysis through dynamics model.

6) Engagement and communication activities to disseminate outcomes from the work

About the World Resources Institute

Founded in 1982, The World Resources Institute (WRI) is a global environmental think tank that goes beyond research to put ideas into action. We work with governments, companies, and civil society to build solutions to urgent environmental challenges. WRI’s transformative ideas protect the earth and promote development because sustainability is essential to meeting human needs and fulfilling human aspirations in the future.

About the Project

The Low Carbon Development Initiative-Initial Implementation Phase (LCDI-IIP) is a UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (UK-FCDO) funded program intended to support the Government of Indonesia in preparing the "green" National Development Planning Document and move towards a low carbon development path that is more sustainable and resilient in the future. Since 2018, the Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS) in collaboration with development partners, mainly the UK Government has developed analytical works and evidence-based research of various scenarios of Low Carbon Development in Indonesia.

However, one aspect of Low Carbon Development that has not yet been explored is biodiversity and its links to climate and the economy. As a Mega-Biodiversity country, Indonesia includes 74 types of Ecosystems. In terms of Species Diversity, Flora of Indonesia represents about 15.5% of the total number of flora species globally with 80.000 species of spore plants and 30.000–40.000 species of seed plant flora. Indonesian Fauna includes about 8.157 species of vertebrate and 1.900 species of butterflies, equal to 10% of the world's butterfly species. Furthermore, Indonesia has the highest endemicity of bird, mammal, and reptile fauna species globally. Indonesian genetics diversity results from the abundance and variety of plants, animals, and microbes, which through conventional or biotechnological cultivation can be economically exploited in the form of drugs, cosmetics, other plant and animal based products. Biodiversity has been and continues to be studied, protected, and used sustainably to support Indonesia's economic growth (Bappenas, 2016)

There is sufficient evidence to suggest that climate change will negatively affect biodiversity (CBD, 2018). According to the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), Climate change is a direct driver for the loss of biodiversity, exacerbating other drivers' impact on nature and human wellbeing. By 2017, humans were estimated to have caused observed warming of approximately 1.0°C relative to pre-industrial levels, which is linked to the greater frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (floods, drought) and fires observed over the past 50 years, as well as global average sea level rise of 16-21 cm since 1900. These changes have contributed to widespread impacts in many aspects of biodiversity, including species distribution, phenology, population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function (IPBES 2019). The International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species predicted that 4161 species are being threatened by climate change, 33% are at risk from climate change-induced habitat shifts and alteration, 29% are due to temperature extremes, and 28% are due to drought (Sintayehu, 2018).

Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8°C by 2030 and 0.8–2.0°C by 2050, with more significant warming over large western islands (i.e., Sumatra, Java, Borneo) (USAID, 2017). Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with a shorter rainy season and increased duration of heatwaves. Warming temperatures increase the risk of forest pests and diseases, which can lead to forest loss and degradation which, in turn, drive the loss of critical habitat for endangered species (Oktaviani et al. 2011).

These changes can affect biodiversity in many ways, including altering life cycles by shifting habitat ranges and species distribution and abundance, changes in migration patterns, and changes in pest and disease outbreaks' frequency and severity. The threats to species diversity are increasing as well. One of the other essential pathways by which climate change affects Indonesian biodiversity is by reducing the amount and availability of suitable habitats or ecosystems and by eliminating species that are vital for the species in question (Sintayehu 2018)

A loss of species from an ecosystem not only affects the species lost, but also interactions with other species, and the general ecological functions. Despite growing awareness that biodiversity is extremely vulnerable to climate change, Indonesia is one of the least studied regions in terms of biodiversity dynamics and climate variability.

The Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS), supported by the UKFCDO in Indonesia, is seeking a consultant to further explore how species diversity, and sensitive ecosystems will be affected by climate change. The proposed study will cover interlinkages between Indonesia Biodiversity, climate change, low carbon development and use robust scientific evidence to examine status and trends, responses, and identify biodiversity sensitive to climate change to provide policy recommendations and valuable insights into how to avoid or mitigate climate-induced effects on biodiversity.

SCOPE OF WORK AND DELIVERABLES

SCOPE OF WORK

This result of the activity will contribute to the formulation of Indonesia Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (IBSAP) Post 2020 led by the Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS). The Consulting Firm should closely coordinate with BAPPENAS, the UK-FCDO, World Resources institute (WRI) through the New Climate Economy (NCE), WRI Indonesia, and other experts and partners including international experts working on biodiversity.

This activity will consist of around 80% research and 20% outreach and engagement. The Consulting Firm will create a projection of species abundance, diversity, sensitive ecosystems and species that is sensitive for future climate scenarios using system dynamics modelling techniques, which can be used to provide policy recommendations to mitigate climate-induced biodiversity loss and develop sustainable management scenarios. The output will reveal interlinkages between Indonesia's Biodiversity, Climate Change, low carbon development as well as green economy and provide policy recommendations and valuable insights on how to avoid or mitigate climate-induced effects that support low carbon development framework towards sustainable future.

As such, the scope of work for this activity would have three components, as follows:

a. Assessment of Keystone Species with the seven ecoregions in Indonesia Indonesia is divided into seven Ecoregions, including Sumatera, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Bali and Nusa Tenggara Islands, Maluku and Papua. These ecoregions have an Keystone species, which is defined as the species whose conservation is expected to confer protection to many naturally co-occurring species.

The selected consultant is expected to identify the Keystone species in the seven ecoregions and determine the Mean Species Abundance. According to the Global biodiversity model for policy support (GLOBIO 2009; 2020; IPBES, 2019), The mean abundance of original species relative to their abundance in undisturbed ecosystems (MSA) is used as the indicator for biodiversity. This component will provide crucial information to calculate local terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) indicator.

b. Assessment of Land-use and Climate Scenarios Scenarios in land use will be agreed upon with BAPPENAS for the period through 2020-2050 based on alternative policy inputs and other assumptions for forest management, including on the effects of climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios will illustrate how mechanisms acting independently of habitat change may be incorporated into species population predictions.

The Consulting Firm is expected to identify land cover change and climate parameters affecting Keystone species population and habitat. That identification will support the impact calculation of land cover change and climate parameters to Keystone species population and habitat. Furthermore, the consultant/ expert is expected to determine the Dynamic Hypothesis of Land Cover Change and Climate Scenario in the Seven Ecoregions.

c. Biodiversity and Climate Change Dynamic Model The results of the analysis on the interlinkages between Indonesia Biodiversity, Climate Change and low carbon development will be essential to strengthen the narrative of Indonesia Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan Post 2020 led by the Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS). According to species, land use, and climate scenario, The Consulting Firm is expected to analyze Ecosystem and Habitat changes to respond to land-use and climate scenarios and establish Dynamic Model Interpretation of Interlinkages Between Indonesia Biodiversity and Climate Change. Under this component, a specific webinar and policy paper on how the government should respond to the impact of climate change on biodiversity and its relation to the low carbon development and green economy will be conducted.

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this activity are as follows:

i. Identify core concepts on biodiversity, including identification of tools and methods for appraisal and economic valuation of biodiversity that are relevant for Indonesia

ii. Identify data needs / gaps and methods for incorporating data in Indonesia's system of economic and environmental accounts

iii. Incorporating biodiversity concepts, data and methods in core models used by BAPPENAS for green policy analysis. In particular, to develop a framework (including a dynamic model) to represent species abundance, diversity, and sensitive ecosystems affected by climate change and land-use occurring within Indonesia's seven ecoregions. The framework will be inclusive of special cases for quantifying Mean Abundance of Keystone species from among Indonesia's seven eco-regions

iv. Incorporating data and finding on Keystone Species in seven eco-regions and other biodiversity elements in System Dynamics models for scenario analysis

v. to provide policy recommendations (evidence-based policy) on avenues to mitigate negative climate-induced effects on biodiversity. These will be summarized in a report: “Addressing Interlinkage between Biodiversity and Low Carbon Development Initiatives: Indonesia Case”

vi. Building capacity of policy makers and other stakeholders on data, concepts and tools for appraisal and economic valuation of biodiversity in Indonesia; as well as on methods for incorporating biodiversity dimensions in policy analysis through dynamics model

vii. Engagement and communication activities to disseminate outcomes from the work

DELIVERABLES

Within six months of the implementation period, the activity is expected to deliver the following outputs:

  1. Delivering one workshop for Expert, Higher Education, and relevant Ministry/Agency to determine the Keystone Species (population and habitat variables) in the seven ecoregions

  2. Participating in at least one technical working group meeting per month to advance the project

  3. A policy report, 30-40 pages in length (15,000 – 20,000 words) excluding tables, charts and annexes: “Addressing Interlinkage between Biodiversity and Low Carbon Development Initiatives: Indonesia Case” summarizing findings of the work ond providing policy recommendations

  4. System dynamics modeling, including: Dynamic Hypothesis of Land Cover Change and Climate Scenario in the Seven Ecoregion as connected to Mean Abundance of Keystone Species; mathematical representation (System Dynamics model of biodiversity); and Scenario analyses to determine Ecosystem and Habitat changes as a response to land-use and climate scenarios

  5. A technical report summarizing data, concepts and methodological issues for measuring Mean Species Abundance Keystone Species within the seven ecoregions of Indonesia

  6. A technical report summarizing data and methodological issues for building system dynamic representations of biodiversity and connections to climate, environment and socio-economy Webinar or focus group discussion (FGD) on a dynamic model on species abundance, diversity, and sensitive ecosystems and how these factors might be affected by climate change and land use occurring within complex seven ecoregions in Indonesia.

  7. Contribute material, in the form of data and presentations for communication and engagement activities

TIMING

Indicative project timeline: January 2021 – June 2021

Deliverables Activities Start and end dates
Mean Species Abundance of Keystone Species within the seven ecoregions in Indonesia Report - Desk study - Identifying the Keystone Species in Seven Ecoregions - Identifying the Keystone Species Home Range, habitat characteristics/preferences, and its population dynamic - Develop species abundance and diversity analysis January 2021 – March 2021
Simulation Model of Land use and Climate Scenario - Identify land cover change and climate parameters affecting Keystone species population and habitat - Measure the impact of land cover change and climate parameters on the Keystone species population and habitat - Develop Scenario and determine Dynamic Hypothesis of Land Cover Change and Climate Scenario in Seven Ecoregions - Analyze and interpret the Scenario Result March 2021 – June 2021
Dynamic Model Interpretation of Interlinkages Between Indonesia Biodiversity and Climate Change - Analysis of Ecosystem and Habitat changes as a response to land-use and climate scenario - Establishing Dynamic Model Interpretation of Interlinkages Between Indonesia Biodiversity and Climate Change. - Conducting Webinar or FGD on the dynamic model in species abundance, diversity, and sensitive ecosystems that might be affected by climate change and land-use occurring within the complex seven ecoregions in Indonesia. - Formulating Policy paper on how government should respond to the Interlinkages Between Indonesia Biodiversity and Climate Change - Technical document on Mean Species Abundance in seven eco-regions of Indonesia - Technical document on System Dynamics model of biodiversity - Public dissemination/ workshop regarding the specific report on Interlinkages Between Indonesia Biodiversity and Climate Change March 2021 – June 2021

BUDGET

Budgets up to 150,000 US$ will be considered and must break down expected team members, respective day rates, and anticipated days on the project. Please note this information will also be required on invoices, as this award will be paid on a cost-reimbursement basis.

Please note that WRI is an IRS-registered 501(c)3, tax-exempt organization. WRI is not VAT exempt. All prices or quotes should include VAT and tax, as applicable.

GUIDELINES FOR PROPOSAL SUBMISSION

Proposal content

The selected organization or consultant will be able to demonstrate capacity in similar work. Prospective organizations or consultants should submit the proposal that includes:

• A statement of interest describing the proposed team and how it meets the above requirements

• CVs of team members

• Examples of and/or references for similar previous work

• An outline of the proposed methodology and workplan

• A proposed budget with a breakdown of costs sufficient to assess reasonableness and compliance with our funder requirements.

• a summary of accounting system which will support claims.

Expression of Interest, Deadline for Questions, and Proposal

All proposals to this RFP must be received via email to the contacts below by February 3, 2021 at 11.59 PM (Washington, DC). Expressions of interest and Questions must be submitted prior. Answers to the questions will be shared with all parties who have asked questions or otherwise expressed interest.

  • Egi.Suarga@wri.org, Ari.Adipratomo@wri.org, eva.costa@wri.org

EVALUATION AND SELECTION

Evaluation Criteria

The following elements will be the primary considerations in evaluating all proposals submitted in response to this RFP:

• Completion of all required elements

• The extent to which the organization’s or consultant’s proposal fulfills WRI’s stated requirements as set out in the RFP

• Experience with similar projects

• Sustainability – WRI values sustainability and all other factors being equal, will favor a proposal to more sustainably perform the work

• Overall cost of the proposal

The bidder offering the best overall value will be selected. For this procurement, price and non-price aspects are considered to be of approximately equal importance.

Selection Process

No proposal development costs shall be charged to WRI, all expenses are to be borne by the bidders. WRI may award to the bidder offering best value without discussions. However, WRI reserves the right to seek bidder clarifications and to negotiate with those bidders deemed to be within a competitive range.

WRI may, at its discretion and without explanation to the prospective organizations or consultants choose to discontinue this RFP without obligation to such prospective organizations or consultants or make multiple awards under this RFP.

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