In Indonesia, the agricultural sector is crucial to the economy. The sector supports employment absorption and serves as a crucial safety net for poor population. Between 2014 and 2023, the agricultural sector consistently contributed an average of 13.1% to Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (BPS, 2024). This substantial contribution correlates with high employment absorption, accounting for 28.2% of the labor force in 2023 (BPS, 2024). Notably, the agricultural sector remains the primary employment source for impoverished families. This is proven by the data from the World Bank that shows sixty-four percent of the poor was employed in agricultural sector (World Bank, 2020). 

Recently, Indonesia’s President, Prabowo Subianto, has expressed his support for expanding palm oil plantations. Many experts have raised concerns that this could accelerate deforestation. However, Although the expansion of palm oil plantations will not only threaten deforestation but also food supply through conversion of agricultural land to plantations. Two of Indonesia’s largest islands, Sumatra and Kalimantan, have experienced a massive land conversion due to oil palm plantations over the years, where most of converted land for crude palm oil (CPO) between 2011 to 2022 came from agricultural land  (Juniyanti et al., 2021). 

Moreover, a recent study published by Koalisi Sistem Pangan Lestari (KSPL) shows that 3.5 million hectares of plantation land in Sumatra (27,5% from total plantation land in Sumatra) and 1.5 million hectares in Kalimantan (20.8% from total plantation land in Kalimantan) were converted from agricultural land (Faoziah, Faruk, and Panggabean, 2024). Same study shows that a similar trend also occurs in Sulawesi where plantation areas have expanded primarily at the expense of agricultural land. With continued government support for CPO plantation expansion, this trend is likely to accelerate, further reducing agricultural land and posing a serious threat to Indonesia’s future food security.

On other major islands, competition for land takes a different form due to urbanization, economic development, and tourism activities. In Java island, between 2011 to 2022 almost ninety-one percent of land converted to residential or industrial areas coming from are coming from rice field conversion. This shift reflects increasing demand for housing and infrastructure due to urbanization. Similarly, in Bali, rice fields are largely replaced by residential areas, resorts, and hotels to accommodate expansion of tourism sector. In some islands, with greater exposure to urbanization, competition for agricultural land is not only between different agricultural commodities, but also with residential, industrial, and tourism-related developments.

Given the current trend in land use conversion in Indonesia, a critical question may arise: how will it affect food supply? To analyze this, KSPL (Faoziah, Faruk, and Panggabean, 2024) developed a system dynamics closed-loop model with region-based feedback to assess food supply and demand across six main regions in Indonesia, including Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Bali–Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku–Papua. The model uses land base in the structures and incorporates key food crops—rice, corn, and cassava—while also highlighting land demand for other purposes such as plantation, housing or industrial. 

The study finds that, without intervention, ongoing land use changes are placing significant pressure on Indonesia’s food supply. The modeling results indicate that if current trends continue, food supply will be at risk by 2045. As shown in the Baseline 2045 scenario (Table 1), without policy intervention, rice production is projected to decline.

Table 1. Comparison of rice, corn, cassava, and palm oil commodity production (people, privately, and state-owned) baseline, moderate, and optimistic scenarios.
Table 1. Comparison of rice, corn, cassava, and palm oil commodity production (people, privately, and state-owned) baseline, moderate, and optimistic scenarios.

The research uses two different scenarios to identify the most effective policy intervention. In moderate 2045 scenario, it put only technology advancement and intensification as a factor to boost productivity, while in optimistic 2045 scenario. The study introduced agricultural land protection as a factor to ensure the threshold of available land for agriculture. The results as shown in table 1 indicate that the situation hasimproved significantly when land-use restrictions were implemented alongside technological advancements. This indicates the urgent need to curb agricultural land conversion to sustain food production in the long term.

The Indonesian Government introduced Law No. 41 of 2009, followed by Government Regulation No. 1 of 2011, regarding Classification and Transition of Sustainable Food Agricultural Land (SFAL/LP2B-Lahan Pertanian Berkelanjutan) ensures the protection of paddy field for twenty years with its sole purposes to produce rice. Besides the regulation, there are various incentives provided by the Government, such as land taxes reduction, infrastructures development, high-yield varieties research and development, agricultural information and technology access improvement, farm inputs subsidies and secure site tenure, to protect agricultural land from conversion to other land use (Prayitno et al., 2021). 

Despite the regulation and incentives, agricultural land conversion is continuously occurs. Research identifies key determinants of land use change include population growth, wealth, consumption patterns, agricultural productivity, land use regulations, and trade (Stehfest et al., 2019). These socio-economic factors shape the future landscape of land use. In Indonesia, as discussed earlier, each major island faces unique pressures driving land conversion, most of which pose a significant threat to the country’s future food availability.

To address this issue, at least two strategies can be implemented to optimize existing regulations and initiatives. First, a participatory monitoring system should be developed to track land use changes. This system should be able to connect key stakeholders such as farmers, village leaders, and local governments, with the goal to provide timely information and alert authorities on real-time land conversion warning so they can take preventive actions to stop massive agriculture land conversion.

Second, promotion of an inclusive business model for farmers. Farmers often earn limited profits from their agricultural yields due to multiple challenges, including long and inefficient supply chains in rice production. Ideally, there should be a clear system that enables farmers to sell their products through shorter and more efficient channels. This can be achieved by increasing farmers’ market literacy, developing value-added products, and fostering community-based business models that strengthen farmers’ bargaining power.

Land use change is difficult to stop due to the conversion of agricultural land to other uses. However, it is critical to recognize that without land, we cannot produce the food we need. Prevention must go beyond regulation. Addressing root causes, developing early warning systems, and improving farmers’ welfare are essential steps to complement existing policies and ensure the long-term protection of agricultural land.